In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are once again pivotal, with a total of 93 electoral votes that could determine the next president. Here’s a breakdown of their historical trends and the current polling:
- Arizona (11 Electoral Votes): Traditionally Republican until 2020, when it went for Biden. This year, Kamala Harris leads slightly at 49% over Trump’s 45%, with the Hispanic vote playing a significant role.
- Georgia (16 Electoral Votes): A former GOP stronghold flipped by Biden in 2020. Polls show a tie at 48%, emphasizing Georgia’s growing role as a barometer of national sentiment.
- Michigan (15 Electoral Votes): Once part of the “blue wall,” it flipped to Trump in 2016 but reverted to Biden in 2020. It’s currently evenly split, reflecting Michigan’s pivotal labor union and industrial concerns.
- Nevada (6 Electoral Votes): Generally leans Democratic. Harris holds a narrow lead of 49% to Trump’s 46%. Its smaller size belies its strategic value in tight elections.
- North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes): Historically Republican but close this year, with Harris leading 48% to 46%. The state’s reaction to natural disasters and its diverse demographics could sway the outcome.
- Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes): A key battleground that shifted from Obama to Trump in 2016, then back to Biden in 2020. Current polling shows a tie at 47%, with working-class and industrial communities as decisive factors.
- Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes): Swung narrowly from Trump to Biden in recent cycles. Harris leads slightly at 49% to Trump’s 47%, with varied demographics contributing to its status as a microcosm of American voting patterns.
These swing states’ combined electoral votes have historically shaped election outcomes, making each state’s results highly consequential.
